Suddenly, it’s a whole new race

What happens next

Well, holy smokes.

I was in a Zoom meeting with the president a week ago with a few dozen members of Congress. The purpose was to discuss the viability of his campaign, and he took a lot of hard questions.

But at no point did he seem like he was dropping out. I figured if he changed course, I’d hear some kind of murmur before the announcement.

That’s not what happened. I found out the same time all of you did.

The shock was followed by my phone exploding with calls from other members of Congress.

Why?

Because we’re all superdelegates.

14 million people voted in the Democratic primary, but the way it works is that the effect of those votes is basically to instruct the delegates from each state how to vote at the convention (which starts in three weeks).

There are about 4,000 delegates across the country. North Carolina, for example, has roughly 150.

Until yesterday, pretty much all of those delegates were locked up by the president.

Now they’re unlocked. They can vote however they want. They’re free agents.

As a member of Congress, I’m not one of those delegates - I’m what’s oddly called a superdelegate. In reality, it means I don’t get to vote unless the convention goes to a second ballot. Only regular delegates get to vote on the first ballot, so if someone immediately wins, the superdelegates are just there to smile and wave.

Let me cut to the chase and tell you what I think is about to happen:

I think the vice president is going to hit 2,000+ delegates pledging their vote to her within the next week. My strong sense is this will not be an open convention and she’ll be the nominee on the first ballot.

I also expect her to name her vice presidential running mate pretty quick. There are three or four names we’re hearing for that, one of which is the governor of my home state, Roy Cooper. 

But will anyone challenge the vice president at the convention?

Two things on that:

First, you have to have the support of at least 300 delegates to be listed on the ballot at the convention. Making it even harder is a rule saying that only 50 of them can come from one state, so you have to have support from at least six different states.

Second, the vice president’s most formidable potential opponents are all endorsing her. There was a moment last night where it looked like Sen. Joe Manchin was going to try and challenge her, but he backed down this morning.

Which is all to say, the vice president is about to become the nominee in extremely rapid fashion. She will inherit the entire existing campaign structure, complete with staff, field offices, and warchest. A pretty seamless transition.

I think we will be fully unified in about a week - which is absolutely, totally remarkable given how sudden and dramatic this transition was.

Conversation with my staff about the vice president’s fundraising

“Jeff, are you seeing the numbers coming in for Harris?”

“Yeah.”

“They’re bonkers.”

“Yeah, truly.”

“She’s going to raise tens of millions today. Maybe $40 million in one day.”

“Outstanding.”

“No, Jeff - we should do that.”

“We should do what?”

“Let’s tell people we’ve set a goal that’s a percentage of what she just raised and try to hit that.”

“You mean like, 1%?”

“No no no, way more than that.”

“Ok but let’s be real here. She’s basically the nominee and it’s the first day of her campaign for President of the United States.”

“Jeff, you have to set a goal, then we focus on achieving it.”

“Ok… I just think people see an Attorney General race a little differently.”

“We’re setting a goal. That’s what matters.”

Well ok then.

So we’ve set a goal! 

If we can raise a measly 50% of what the vice president just raised, it’ll fund our entire campaign - and the whole next one. 

It will shatter every conceivable record for an Attorney General campaign.

It will generate an avalanche of press coverage - some of which, admittedly, will be deeply skeptical. 

However - in the event that a goal of raising $20m from one email strikes some of you as unreasonable - I’ve got an alternative goal for you:

It’s to earn your support, in any amount, so we can run a good campaign, win, and then serve the state in a way that is meaningful and helpful.

If you’d like to help us achieve that goal, you can chip in here (ActBlue) or here (non-ActBlue).

And once again, thank you.

Best,

Jeff Jackson

P.S. - I made a video about the experience yesterday of watching the news come in and my sense of what happens next and you can watch it on YouTube here.