Working around the rules

Also, we need to win the primary

You didn’t hear from me last week because nothing interesting happened in the House.

This week, that changed - we actually passed a big bill.

Here’s a conversation about it that I had with a member of the other party on the House floor:

“So we’re gonna pass this tax bill?”

“Looks like it.”

“I’m a little surprised.”

“Me, too.”

“Is it gonna pass the Senate?”

“Eh, it’s gonna get filibustered. Might collapse.”

“Still though, kinda amazed it got this far, given everything.”

“Agreed.”

The bill gave the majority party some business-side tax cuts, it gave the minority party an expansion of a tax credit for working families, and the whole thing was paid for by nixing another tax credit from the Covid era. 

Its prospects in the Senate are uncertain because it’s probably going to catch a filibuster, which means it’ll need 60 votes to pass. So we’ll see.

But the larger story here might be how it passed the House.

Normally, all you need is a simple majority to get something passed - that’s 50% +1, or 218 votes. 

But that assumes the usual path for a bill, which involves going through the Rules Committee.

The Rules Committee is the last stop for almost all bills. It is possible to skip that committee and just bring a bill straight to the floor - the Speaker has that power - but there’s a price to pay:

Any bill that skips the Rules Committee needs a supermajority to pass. That’s two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes.

That option exists to allow non-controversial stuff to pass quickly.

BUT - during our first big Speaker fight last January, one of the key concessions McCarthy made to the right-flank was to appoint a bunch of them to the Rules Committee. That basically gave them a chokepoint on any bill they don’t like, and so far they haven’t liked any bill that can pass the Senate.

As a result, for the last several months, all of our serious bills - the ones that need to pass the Senate and actually become law - have skipped the Rules Committee. 

Which means, all of these bills have needed a supermajority vote.

Which means, they’ve all needed a whole bunch of votes from the minority party to pass. That’s the only way to get two-thirds.

So here’s the political reality we’re living in:

Not only does the threat of being fired/punished by the right-flank serve as a huge deterrent for the Speaker in bringing certain matters to a vote, but when he does bring something serious to a vote - something his right-flank will oppose - he’s going to need roughly 100 votes from the other party.

That means to get something done, he has to defy a big chunk of his party and he has to do it in a way that appeals to a ton of folks in the other party but not so much that it will upset his party to the point where he’ll get fired.

Those are very tough needles to thread, and it’s why we were all a little surprised to actually get a serious bill passed this week.

That dynamic has never really existed in the House before. Skipping the Rules Committee was once a narrow legislative path, but now it has to become a legislative superhighway if we’re going to start doing big things like passing a budget, or the border, or Ukraine.

And it’s all because McCarthy made a very specific concession to his right-flank 12 months ago in order to get the last few votes he needed to become Speaker… only to be fired by the same group nine months later.

Attendance Report

Last week, a reporter published a list of the 18 members of the House who haven’t missed a single vote yet.

And I was a little surprised to see my name.

We’ve taken roughly 700 votes. Honestly, I figured I might have missed one by now.

Also, I’m well aware that in highlighting the fact that I haven’t missed a vote, I’m basically ensuring that I will. This is the epitome of tempting fate. Delayed planes, crazy traffic, family emergencies - something will come along soon, I’m sure.

But for now, it’s a good list to be on! 

The real credit, however, goes to my staff. They do an excellent job managing logistics and reacting to curve balls. Grateful for them.

Campaign Update

It’s been a month since I gave you an update on my campaign for Attorney General.

It’s going well. The next big hurdle is the primary.

Including me, there are three people running for the nomination. (On the other side there is no primary - they have their nominee.)

My first request is that all you folks in North Carolina remember to vote on March 5th.

My second is that you chip in to our Win the Primary Fund.

We want to focus on the general, but we can’t take the primary for granted.

The funds you contribute will go toward digital ads (not television ads) that will help us remind people to vote and will feature a message about why I’m running for Attorney General.

In addition to helping us win the primary, this will let me introduce myself to roughly a million voters heading into the general election, so it’s a bit of a double-investment.

You can contribute here, through ActBlue, or here, through non-ActBlue.

(By the way, some of you have asked why we offer those two options. They both go to the same place - our campaign. They’re just different payment platforms. It’s like MasterCard or Visa. Some people have a preference for ActBlue, some prefer not to use it, so we offer both.)

Best,

Jeff