Predictions about December

And stopping by The Daily Show

Congress went home for Thanksgiving, but we’re headed back to D.C. tomorrow.

Normally, we’d be trying to finish a budget right now, but that was punted until January.

We’ll be in session for the next three weeks. There’s a lot that could happen… but then again, there’s a distinct chance that nothing happens.

That said, here are my predictions: 

I think it is very likely that we’ll kick Rep. George Santos out of Congress, maybe even this week.

It will be the first time in 20 years that’s happened, but the ethics report was absolutely damning and the latest attempt to expel him is being led by the Chairman of the Ethics Committee. That’s a clear sign that this is a leadership-approved expulsion. My only curiosity here is, will anyone (other than Santos…) vote against it? 

Next on the list of probable occurrences is the long-awaited defeat of Sen. Tuberville’s hold on roughly 400 military nominations. I think it’s reasonably likely that he either caves or the Senate votes to change the rule and end his blockade. Call it a 60% chance.

Now for the big 50/50. There’s an aid package that combines Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan/southern border. It can’t pass the House right now because of the Ukraine piece. In the Senate, the stumbling block appears to be the southern border piece. 

The sense I’m getting is that the Senate will pass some version of this package - maybe by next week. Then it will come to the House where the first question will be whether the Speaker will let it come to a vote. He certainly wants to do something on all of those issues, but his political concern is whether he is willing to upset his right-flank again so soon after he upset them by passing the budget extension two weeks ago.

My general feeling is that the chance of that package passing both chambers before the end of the year is probably a coin flip.

Those are my predictions - but then again, nothing invites the unexpected more than writing down a list of probabilities and emailing them to everyone you know, so now that I’ve done that we can all be assured that something truly wild will occur.

Stopping by The Daily Show

Two weeks ago, I got an email asking if I’d like to be a guest on The Daily Show. I grew up watching Jon Stewart and enjoyed Trevor Noah so the show has a warm place in my heart.

Then they told me the date they wanted me for: the day before Thanksgiving.

In other words, the question was whether I was willing to travel to and from NYC on the busiest travel day of the year.

So I said sure, let’s go for it.

The show usually tapes at 6pm in front of a live audience. It was a bit of an ordeal, but I got there at 4pm. 

The producer met me when I arrived and made sure to tell me, “You don’t have to be funny. That’s what the hosts are for.” It felt like she had seen politicians swing and miss before.

It went well (you can see a shortened version of the interview here). We talked about gerrymandering, fake outrage in Congress, using social media to keep my constituents posted, George Santos, and running for Attorney General.

The hosts were throwing in jokes where they could, but the wild part was the audience. They were definitely there to have a good time. It almost felt like a town hall.

And naturally I missed my plane heading home, so I didn’t get in until the next afternoon… on Thanksgiving day. But I made it home just in time. Worked out perfectly.

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Campaign update

I told you that the next time you heard from me I’d tell you how my opponent reacted when I got in the race for Attorney General.

My likely opponent is Rep. Dan Bishop. He’s best known as the author of HB2, the notorious “bathroom bill” that brought so much negative attention to our state a few years ago. Notably, his first endorsements were from Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert.

After I announced, he put my logo on top of a fake press release written in Chinese. The release - designed to look like it had come from me - was addressed to “our unamerican friends” and talked about being “soft on crime” and invoked San Francisco and New York. 

It was wild enough to earn negative statewide press attention: “Dan Bishop’s first attack on Jeff Jackson foretells an unhinged, unserious campaign.”

It’s going to be quite a race.

I’m not asking you to get all worked up about my opponent. I can handle him. I just need you to see the type of guy we’re up against so you have that for context going forward.

In the meantime, our campaign is on a roll. Thousands of you have chipped in and I’m hoping that a few more of you are motivated by what you’ve just read to join them and make a contribution, which you can do here (or, for the non-ActBlue crowd, here).

Remember, as Sun Tzu often said, “The best revenge… is a highly successful fundraising email.”

So let’s do that, and we’ll keep moving forward.

Best,

Jeff