127 Comments
Mar 7, 2023Liked by Jeff Jackson

Thank you for these updates - much appreciated - from a member of Congress *on* the Armed Services Committee. We all struggle to identify reliable information so this is among the best.

Expand full comment

Jeff, despite the number of readers who want to turn your updates into a debate, I just want to express my gratitude that you’re doing a great job of keeping us informed. We need to know what’s going on, not just the opinions of people who like to give their opinions. Thanks, man.

Expand full comment

Jeff, I appreciate your emails and it looks like you're trying to be a conscientious and diligent congressman. However, on this one, you and the American people have swallowed a load of propaganda that even the old experts of the USSR would have had a hard time topping.

“We want to put [Ukraine] in the best possible position ... far more advantageous for their long-term future ....”

No. More weapons will only result in more dead Ukrainians -- mostly men, worsening an already terrible national demographic deficit.

1. The US has been working hard to force Russia (NOT the old Soviet Union!) into a corner for 30 years, as is amply and repeatedly documented by the US's own statements.

2. Russia regards NATO weapons in Ukraine just as much an existential threat as the US did Soviet weapons in Cuba in the 1960s. (We were REALLY disturbed back then: my school bus was checked every day by MPs as we went through the Cherry Point NC Marine Corps Air Station gate due to Cuban missile crisis tensions.)

3. Despite the DC Beltway happy talk about Ukrainian successes, Russia has the resources to block the NATO threat and will do so, though probably more slowly than they expected. Russia is the only nation on the planet that is completely autonomous in industrial and natural resources and can produce all the weapons and ammunition they need in the current crisis. The US's and NATO's cupboards are just about bare and the promised aid will be trickling out late and slowly.

If we want to help Ukraine, we need to shut off the ammunition and weapons immediately, guarantee Ukraine's perpetual neutrality, officially recognize that the Russian-majority oblasts are now permanently part of Russia, and spend any aid money on repairing the damage that 30 years of continuously escalated US provocations have caused.

Expand full comment

I would be more likely to listen politely to your position if it were not being pushed hard by people right here in the USA that I don't trust and don't like. It is just so important to some people that Biden and the "Libs" must be wrong about everything. Let's keep arming the Ukrainians until Putin says, "Let's talk."

Expand full comment

How about reflecting on the U.S. record of "helping" other countries with past military interventions. Can we learn from history? Count the failures: Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Vietnam. Two on that list have been named by the U.N. as post-war humanitarian catastrophes. Yet you keep wanting to double down. That's easy to do, when Ukrainians are doing all the fighting and dying. Please tell me the objective--beyond platitudes like "freedom"-- that justifies the cost in lives and destruction? I suspect the real objective has nothing to do with "freedom" but profits for American military contractors.

Expand full comment

You are woefully uninformed. Russia will roll over Ukraine the moment they lose the means to resist or lay down their arms. This fight is for survival. Few who are fighting now or have spoken out against Russia would be alive in 5 years after a Russian occupation. Everyone in Ukraine fully understands this. Better to die with a rifle in your hands than be starved to death in the Gulag.

Former Ukrainian service men and women including those permanently disabled have already paid the ultimate price in the occupied zones. Russia is a vengeful nation and never forgives anything.

Expand full comment

I wholeheartedly agree, David.

Expand full comment

I am woefully uninformed?

Expand full comment

Oops sorry meant to reply to Bill Clay

Expand full comment

Vietnam and Afghanistan actual Republicans got us into when they should not have. Then, Afghanistan became a disaster when a tRUmpliecon wanted a 'victory' to take into a re-election campaign and was positive he knew handing the country's citizens over to the Taliban was the way to do that.

Yes, we have our problems with foreign affairs, but some of them are leader specific as opposed to Ignorance or Bad Management.

Expand full comment

Russia has tried for 8 years to negotiate, it is the US neocons that refuse to negotiate. NATO, led by the US has lost all credibility in 80% of the world with the constant warmongering and lying. The sanctions have backfired, the Nordstream sabotage has alienated Europe, the war is already lost and what’s coming is yet another flood of refugees to the US. Fix the serious problems we have here and stop trying to maintain the empire, it’s over.

Expand full comment
Mar 11, 2023·edited Mar 11, 2023

“ Tried to negotiate”? At the point of a bayonet! I am old enough to remember Munich 1938. It was about “Sudetendeutsche” then, as it is about “Russian speakers” now. Remember that outcome? Do you really think this would be different? We needn’t posit a world war if Putin prevails, but Ukraine would cease to exist as it has before and as Poland did from 1792 to 1918. Should we care? To reestablish imperialism as a political norm would open the door to untold misery. What ever happened to our belief in self determination? What do you imagine inhabits the mind of a man who kidnaps Ukrainian kids to Russia and has their names changed so they cannot be recovered?

And lastly, can we not bolster democracy in Europe while attending to domestic affairs at the same time?

Before you jump, let me add that I am not a Neocon and was vehemently opposed to the war in Vietnam.

Expand full comment

Amen!

Yes, America can even if QAnons believe Russian propaganda.

Ditto your last sentence.

Expand full comment

No so. Russia has had nothing to negotiate over - except, perhaps, about Putin's whisperer's Delusions of Empire Past.s.

Expand full comment

Hilarious observation, 'Bill'. I've been here the whole 8 years and am not aware of anything but bluster. You have lost all credibility.

Expand full comment

Bill, you’re parroting Putinist talking points. Please read historian Timothy Snyder. Start here: https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory

Thanks in advance.

Scott

Expand full comment

Thank you for sharing this fake news from Putin's Ministry of Propaganda. I agree that immediate surrender to psychopaths is always the best plan for our national security.

Expand full comment

Just as it was for Chamberlain.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Russian propaganda.

Expand full comment

This is Russian propaganda.

Expand full comment

There are a lot of falsehoods here (I am doing my best to be polite):

1) The US has regarded Russia as a regional power (at best) at least 10 years at this point. There's been no effort to "force Russia into a corner"; the expansion of NATO and American influence into eastern Europe has been driven entirely through the erosion of Russia's power and influence on the world stage.

2) Ukraine would likely still be a neutral country and possibly even a diplomatic mediator between Russia and the European Union (and NATO by extension) had Russia respected the will of the Ukrainian people and their desire for further integration with Western Europe.

3) Russia absolutely does not have the capacity to continue this war in the long run; they have suffered almost 200k casualties in the course of this war, they have lost so many armored vehicles they are using tanks and IFVs from the 1960s, they have run through their Soviet era shell reserves to the point they are buying ammunition from North Korea. Russia cannot win at this point and ongoing Battles of Bakhmut (ongoing) and Vuheldar (a complete debacle) demonstrate this.

Expand full comment

So the war is all the fault of the US? Putin is a saint and runs a Kremlin holier than the Vatican?

How much does Russia pay you for this drivel?

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Hi Geoff I was trying to reply to Bill Clay. App keeps placing my comments in the wrong part of the tree. Haven’t checked your links but I can’t see how the US is playing anything other than the Ukrainian side. What possible benefit would there be in pushing Putin to the brink to attack Ukraine?

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment

Again, Russian propaganda.

Expand full comment

Do you know how to block particular commenters on substack? Thanks for sharing if you do.

Expand full comment

Thanks Jeff for the informative update. We wish the Ukrainians well and hope all the assistance pays off in the end. Hopefully sooner than later.

Expand full comment

Other readers are not remembering history. If successful, Russia will continue to attack other former Russian satellite countries which have allied with the western world. That is why NATO exists.....to prevent an expansionist move such as perpetuated by Nazi Germany that resulted in WW2. I'm 80. We learned if we don't fight NOW, we WILL have American boots on the ground later. We can't afford to lose our European allies. They are not just military allies, but trading partners. It's also a matter of honor (seemingly an old fashioned idea) in that we signed the NATO treaty which means an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us, and we all defend each other. If not, you will have the old Soviet Union to contend with which leaves Europe and its allies irreparably weakened, and Russia will be a much stronger foe for whoever survives. Democracy has to be fought for - domestically and abroad unless you prefer to live in country ruled over by Putin and HIS allies. Thanks for the great work, Jeff.

Expand full comment

Thank you for a reply grounded in perspective and history.

Expand full comment

Absolutely, Priscilla Ridgell!

Expand full comment

Thank you! As soon as I saw your post I went right to it! Will share this with those around me. Grateful you are doing this column. No sensationalism, no political bend. You are the real deal!

Expand full comment

This war uses the Ukrainian people as pawns of NATO. The US promised Russia it would not extend NATO eastward. The US lied. This conflict needs comparison to when Khrushchev put missiles in Cuba. what did he expect JFK to do? What do we expect Putin to do? I'm so sad that the Democrats are now the war party. I certainly will never vote again for Biden.

Expand full comment

What do we expect Putin to do? Here's hoping he puts a gun in his mouth and pulls the trigger.

Here's what NATO is dude. A completely voluntary association of democracies who have come together for their common defense against the threat presented by psychopaths like Putin. Have you noticed that Eastern European countries are banging on the door of NATO begging to be let in? You know more than them about their own security?

You don't seem to know pretty much anything about the Democratic Party. Have you heard of Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson and Obama? These were all compassionate leaders that showed great concern for the disadvantaged among us, while at the same time making no apology about resisting tyranny. That's the Democratic Party, and it has been for century.

On this particular subject, you simply have no clue.

Expand full comment

You could have taken your position without making ad hominem attacks on me. Suggests you are more concerned with winning than pursuing truth. I agree LBJ was great domestically, but his Tonkin was HIS lie that started the Vietnam escalation. Do you applaud US policy in Indochina?

Expand full comment

It's true that I don't have a lot of patience with Putin apologists.

Expand full comment

Common deflection tactic being used here.

Expand full comment

Good update. And horrifying that you believe all this. We should be supporting negotiations (with no preconditions! ), not giving weapons. The goal of getting Ukraine into a better position is a farce, a good hype for continuing war.

Expand full comment

What would you like to give Putin to reward him for his psychopathic war crimes?

Expand full comment

The US needs to stay out of the conflict entirely. We have nothing to gain by supporting Ukraine and have already wasted 100 billion of tax money that could have been spent at home. And Zelensky is just another puppet dictator unworthy of our support.

Expand full comment

Chris, you’re parroting Putinist talking points. Please read historian Timothy Snyder. Start here: https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-the-world-needs-ukrainian-victory

Thanks in advance.

Scott

Expand full comment

Even at age 71, I'm still amazed at how ignorant some people can be.

Expand full comment

Did we waste the money we spent fighting Hitler? I think you have your dictators wrong.

Expand full comment

Thank you for the updates.

It does align quite well with the updates from ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org

Expand full comment

What, if anything, can be done to lift the prohibition on the use of our equipment to hit legitimate military targets on the Russian side of the border? That seems to me a stupid restriction, tying one hand behind Ukraine's back. Ukraine is obviously not ever going to try to invade and annex Russian territory, but they do need to be able to destroy ammo depots, military bases, and supply lines. It makes no sense for Russia to feel that their stuff can be safe just by keeping it on their own side of the line. Any prospects for revising this policy?

Expand full comment
Mar 7, 2023·edited Mar 7, 2023

So far it seems that as long as the fight stays within the territorial boundaries of Ukraine after the 2014 invasion of Crimea, Russian rhetoric has been not to escalate against our partners in Poland and Lithuania.

Recall that the Kaliningrad Oblast--a state within Russia--is actually separated from the rest of Russia by Poland and Lithuania, and is accessible only by the Suwalki Corridor, which makes it a potential triggerpoint in a war between Russia and NATO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwałki_Gap

And Kaliningrad is a major naval base for Russia.

So from the Russian military perspective, they are incredibly vulnerable to what they see as NATO--whom they view as a US puppet organization--boxing them in and potentially capturing a major naval base at any point we feel like it.

And recall too Russia has nukes and the ability to drop them on New York City.

So I personally suspect based on all the things I've read that we're trying to thread the needle here--repulse the invasion of Ukraine so as to guarantee the stability of the EU and to prevent Russian expansionist efforts (which could even conceivably see them trying to carve out a land bridge along the Suwalki corridor through Polish and Lithuanian land, as well as potential expanionist plans into Moldova and creating a new "Iron Curtain" along the Romanian and Hungarian borders)--yet not trigger World War III in the process, with the "Axis" powers being Russia, China, and Iran.

Expand full comment

(Sorry, I have subscriptions to Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, and I read way too much stuff from ISW, whose daily briefings I scan through with my morning coffee. But it's endlessly fascinating to me, despite me having zero say in any of this.)

Expand full comment

The rich of the world will never let WWIII happen, unless it is started by a completely crazy person or accident.

Expand full comment

Optimism. :-)

Expand full comment

We must support the brave people of Ukraine.

Expand full comment

Thank you for this. Can you give a master class in communicating with constituents to the other 434 members of the House?

While researching a book on World War II I came across this horrifying example of how Russians operate. When mines were dropped on Russian airfields they marched prisoners, malcontents, and such out onto the runways to explode them.

Expand full comment

I believe that our support path forward is vital & I truly appreciate your analysis. As an Emerging Market Specialist with experience in the Balkans, I know how vital it is for the region to push Russia back into to its on borders .

Expand full comment

I didn't vote for Jeff but I'm reassessing that choice. Thank you for the cogent, objective, and politics-free updates.

Expand full comment

Thank you for the update about the progress of the Russia / Ukraine war. But my criticism is about why the USA military adventures overseas has not been scrutinized in Congress committees, when the USA congress spent millions when USA citizens attacked Congress in Jan 06 and hundreds of hours of testimony spent. But when the USA attacked other countries, there was no admonition and condemnation nor hearings. The USA military adventures in Iraq and Syria resulted in the almost extinction of NATIVE CHRISTIANS there due to misguided USA foreign policy failures. Why is the USA military in Syria and Iraq? The same kind of failure when USA president Obama ordered NATO to destroy Libya. Now Libya exports African migrants to Europe, soon Europe will become Black and Muslim. Europe will reap what it had sown due to NATO's bombing of Libya. Also, sanctions by the USA on unfriendly countries have resulted in misery of their citizens, not the leaders. As a military man yourself, military power does not resolve a diplomatic solution. The USA does not strive for peaceful means for its foreign policy, which stinks terribly.

Expand full comment

Wow, this audience is full of clueless people. Sorry Jackson, you seem like a good guy, but if this is your base, might have to bail on this blog.

Expand full comment

If you prefer misinformation, just stick with Fox.

Expand full comment