The luxury of fantasy

And Jeff’s staff fights back

I’m writing this the night before you’re reading it. 

I’m at the airport, waiting to board, trying to escape the snowstorm they say is about to hit D.C. I’ve got drill this weekend with the National Guard, so I can’t afford to get stuck here.

Two important things happened in the House this week.

First, we passed our third budget extension. 

Last week, I told you the Speaker would call this for a vote and that it would pass over the objection of his right-flank.

As it turned out, it was much worse than that. The Speaker came within one vote of losing half of his party - which meant he lost a lot more than his right-flank.

(Notably, one member of the majority did the Speaker a favor by switching his vote from no to yes at the last possible moment just so the Speaker could claim that a majority of his party voted for it. I watched the guy get the signal from a member of leadership to change his vote, then after he switched he got a pat on the back and a fist bump.)

The moment the vote went through, social media was flooded with pre-scheduled statements from members in the majority who voted against it. Most of them cited the lack of budget cuts or the lack of immigration legislation.

Ok, sure. But what was really happening was this: 

They knew that almost everyone in the other party was going to vote for it, so they didn’t have to worry about it not passing, which meant they had the luxury of taking the messaging high-ground, voting against it, and casting stones. An age-old political tactic.

And boy do I have a great example for you.

The Speaker, as you’d expect, voted in favor of the extension. Because of course he did. He’s the one who brought it to a vote. He understands why it’s necessary, what a shutdown would mean, and the political reality of divided government.

But let’s wind the clock back to our first budget extension vote. The one from last fall. The one that got the old Speaker fired.

We heard a very different tune from our current Speaker on that vote. Not only did he vote against it, but he gave a big speech on the House floor surrounded by other members of the right-flank in which he said… all the same stuff they’re now saying about him.

So either he has suddenly become a completely different person - he’s not a “fighter,” not willing to make “hard choices,” not “standing on principle,” and all the other stuff he’s being accused of - or he simply no longer has the luxury of fantasy. 

He has actual power, which comes with actual responsibility, and he’s chosen to respect that enough to break with his old buddies and not shut down the government. 

“But Jeff, what’s the fantasy in wanting greater fiscal responsibility?”

No fantasy there at all. Perfectly sound.

But the notion that the Speaker could force a government shutdown and then condition the re-opening of government on a bunch of deep budget cuts - which was the strategy he voted for before he was Speaker - is 100% fantasy, as the right-flank absolutely knows. 

It failed horribly the last time they tried and would certainly fail this time. Why? Because doing super unpopular things - like forcing a shutdown - subtracts negotiating power; it doesn’t add. 

And one more thing on that:

His old buddies in the right-flank know this. They needed to make noise about this to stay on brand, but I watched their attacks against him, and they weren’t vicious - they were choreographed. He’ll survive.

The second interesting thing that happened - and you had to really be paying close attention - is that the Speaker allowed a little bit of hope for a border deal. It appears the Senate is going to reach a bipartisan compromise on the border, and although the Speaker originally dismissed it out-of-hand (following the lead of his right-flank, who doesn’t think it’ll be strong enough), he walked that back a bit this week. That means there’s still a chance of a bipartisan deal addressing the southern border, even if it’s a slim one.

***

In defense of Jeff’s staff - written by Jeff’s staff

Ok, so look.

You all really enjoyed the part of Jeff’s last email where he mentioned that some of us thought his email was too long.

He challenged you to donate to show that you agreed with him, and sure enough, more people contributed to that email than any since our launch.

Well, ok then. Got it!

In our defense, this whole thing is pretty weird. Having the candidate write the emails is weird. Having them be this detailed is weird. We’re thrilled that you like them, but we’re sort of in uncharted territory with all of you.

(By the way, you should know that some of his emails really have been too long and after we’ve mentioned it he’s agreed and made them shorter, so we saved you there!) 

Also, we saw his AI-generated picture of us. Totally inaccurate. 

This is how we actually look at the office:

And hey - let’s show some love for #TeamStaff! You gotta get us back in the game! 

All the donations to this email will go toward showing Jeff that his team rocks and we’re gonna win this race. You can give here or here (for non-ActBlue).

And thanks!

***

Best,

Jeff (and team)