Tuberville caves

And my conversation with Santos

I’m writing this at the D.C. airport where my flight was just delayed for the fourth time.

I’m trying to make it to Greensboro in time for an event and we’re going to cut it very close. As it turns out, a big part of campaigning statewide is just travel logistics - and learning to accept how much of it is out of your control.

In the meantime, I made a bunch of predictions in my last email. How’d I do?

I told you:

1. Kicking out Santos was “very likely.” As you saw, that happened.

I kept an eye on Santos during the expulsion vote and once it became clear he was going to lose, he started shaking hands with a few members who were standing near him, then slowly walked off the floor.

The Speaker announced the vote and said, “The whole number of the House is now 434.”

Then he banged the gavel and that was it. At that moment, Santos ceased to be a member of Congress. The locks on his office door were changed immediately.

I actually spoke to Santos for the first and only time the day before the expulsion vote.

I was walking past him on the House floor when he stopped me and - with total sincerity - said, “I’m really looking forward to your video about me getting kicked out.” (He was referring to this video I did a few weeks ago.)

I said, “Well, we’ll see how the vote goes.” He quickly replied, “Oh, I’m getting kicked out.”

Then I put out my hand and said, “I wish you well.”

We shook hands, and I kept moving.

Plot twist: In the last few days, Santos has booked more than the annual salary of a member of Congress by doing short videos - birthday greetings, motivational messages, etc. - for $200 a pop. That’s an incredibly profitable congressional expulsion and I imagine it will be helpful in funding his legal defense against the barrage of felony charges he now faces.

It’s also a testament to the unique way we treat notoriety in our country, in which shame can be monetized so long as it isn’t acknowledged. In other words, for well-known individuals, the monetary reward for shamelessness can outweigh the ethical reward of remorse, so we see the former more than the latter. Santos promptly making hundreds of thousands of dollars upon expulsion from Congress is an extreme example of that trend. Were he to sincerely apologize and show contrition, I don’t think that financial opportunity would exist.

2. There was a “60% chance” Sen. Tuberville would finally cave on his blockade of military promotions. That happened.

It’s important to note that, in exchange for the whole ordeal, Tuberville received absolutely nothing. He walked all the way out on a limb, stood there by himself for almost a year, and then gave up and walked back. 

Why did he cave? Because a handful of Senators from his party were getting ready to vote with all the Democrats to change the rule that allowed him to hold up all the nominations. Faced with certain defeat - from his own party - he gave up.

3. It was “50/50” that we’d get an aid package that combined Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan/southern border. That turned out to be optimistic.

As expected, the biggest fight here is over provisions related to the southern border, but to be honest that fight is happening on the Senate side and I don’t have great visibility on it. Talks broke down a few days ago, but are back on now.

The basic challenge here is that we’re trying to make up for years of inaction on immigration in very rapid fashion, and doing so in a manner that balances the political priorities of three additional bills. So we’re attempting to spin four different plates, with at least one of them being a plate we haven’t been able to balance in several decades. It’s a tall order, but could still happen. 

White House Holiday Ball

Marisa made very clear to me several months ago that we would, in fact, be attending the annual White House Holiday Ball. 

I generally skip ceremonial stuff because the job and campaign eat up the whole schedule, but we agreed to make it a date.

Attendance was much more bipartisan than I expected. I spoke with several members of both parties, House and Senate, and it was a great environment to get to know them a little better. Everyone was in a good mood, which is a little rare in this town. 

(I tried to speak with Sen. Romney for a moment but couldn’t quite make it across the room in time. I’ve never met him and would like to say hello before he retires.)

A congresswoman from the other party was kind enough to tell me that she reads my emails, and if she’s reading this one right now, please know that I appreciate it very much.

In short, Marisa was right. I’m glad we went.

Campaign Update

The campaign for Attorney General is going very well.

Endorsements, fundraising, and press coverage have been strong. This race is suddenly on a lot of people’s radars, and we’re grateful.

But I just want to set expectations for you: North Carolina’s last two AG races came down to less than 1%. 

On election night, our ceiling is probably 51% - and our floor is probably 49%.

When you’re talking a margin that tight, you’re in “every little bit truly does help” territory.

So if there’s a little bit you can do for us this week, it’d make a big difference. Here’s ActBlue, and here’s non-ActBlue. 

Thanks, as always, for your support.

Best

Jeff

P.S. - I’m doing a series of fundraisers over the next few months. If you’d like to make sure you get an invite when I’m holding one near you, just let us know here. And if you’re interested in holding a fundraiser for our campaign - which is always appreciated - please let us know here.